A third of Republicans would be less likely to vote in the midterms if they believe that the GOP has abandoned the abortion issue, according to a poll released on Thursday. The findings emphasize a perceived rift between pro-life advocates and the Trump administration, given the position of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
John Rogers, a senior partner at Cygnal, a public opinion data firm that conducted the poll, said that their work proves abortion is still a "north star" topic for much of the Republican base.
"It's a bedrock issue for Republican primary voters for decades," Rogers said. "This is at the core of their worldview."
In a memo accompanying the release of their findings, Rogers said voters specifically expressed disappointment with Kennedy over an HHS policy that enables continued access to abortion drugs through the mail.
MARK HALPERIN: TRUMP STRATEGY SUPER SESSION PLOTS MIDTERM SURVIVAL AS HISTORY STALKS GOP
"Voters are overwhelmingly committed to pro-life principles, but frustrated with federal health agencies' abortion policies under HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The national data show a significant disconnect between base Republican voter expectations and current federal actions, creating real enthusiasm risks for the November midterm general election," the memo states.
According to Cygnal's findings, 32% of GOP voters said they will have decreased enthusiasm for voting in the midterm election "if Republican leaders weaken or abandon pro-life policies."
That number overlaps with the 36% of the "most engaged" portion of the voter base.
AFTER 80-MINUTE TRUMP ADDRESS, GOP LAWMAKERS SAY MOMENTUM IS BACK AS HEALTHCARE FIGHT LOOMS
Marjorie Dannenfelser, the president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, a pro-life advocacy group, said Kennedy is risking turning that prediction into a reality by continuing mail-access to abortion drugs, a policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
"In failing to repeal Biden's COVID mail order rule, [he] runs counter to the MAHA base," Dannenfelser said on Thursday.
"51 senators, 145 representatives and 22 attorneys general have called for the end of mail-order abortion drugs and the immediate restoration of in-person dispensing," Dannenfelser said.
On that issue specifically, Cygnal's polling indicated that 80% of respondents overall believed that the FDA should require in-person visits to secure an abortion.
"They see a dissonance there," Rogers said of Kennedy's decision to continue the mail-order policy.
'FICTION': HOUSE REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN CHAIR DISMISSES DEMOCRATS' EXPANDING GOP TARGET MAP
"I think they see the broader MAHA movement as an extension of their pro-life commitments."
Dannenfelser warned that if voters don't feel like the administration has moved in the right direction, Republicans could stand to lose their current grip on a governing trifecta.
"There is no amount of money that can overcome a reluctant voter base that sees failed action. What we might see is a loss in the House. Everyone assumes the Senate is fine. I would not assume that," Dannenfelser said.
"I have no doubt that if we lose, the pro-life movement will be blamed No. 1," she added.
